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"I'll be positioned in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for another conversation next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for leaders. In the hour before the interview began, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than typical, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the year starts, the Prime Minister appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Perhaps even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly appeared to have put him in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they believe his standing are about to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that a significant number of his colleagues think he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was dismissing such talk in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he stated he'd be "judged at the poll", insisting nobody would remove his five-year mandate from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"We are in the fight of our times and I intend to lead us," he declared.

The Spring Test

The problem for the PM is that he will be scrutinised well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to argue, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would step down, even if a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably eager for things to get better. He aimed to convince the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be different.

The economy would recover notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their initial turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a firm date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western partners were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His central argument is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing calls from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with increased political direction, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were well-known ones.

Given that he is in considerable political difficulty, should he consider a new narrative?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his team have faltered, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing evident political dangers as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be comfortable with such action seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "career-long champion of international law" but we "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it prior to the interview. And the administration is expected to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been simmering pressure in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European market – will probably provoke howls that he is breaking his vow never to try to overturn the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to align with more of the single market will satisfy some on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to