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The last time Vladimir Putin traveled to the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, centered around talks on strategic and defense cooperation between the two nations.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Additionally, that era preceded a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by inflammatory statements and the introduction of heavy trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. President Putin arrives following rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this engagement is its simple happening," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and remains deeply entrenched, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations ignored India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, pressure increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"Consequently, India has returned to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," noted a strategic analyst. "This demonstrates to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China remains the greatest threat to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become so dependent that a supply disruption would cripple its defenses," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil purchases is central. While the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to increase imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "obstacles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "minor" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is expected to be addressed mainly through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi has access to all parties, the nation lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its capacity to make a difference is limited."

In the end, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," guided by cold calculation in a volatile world.